Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 19.823282 23.036801 26.893355 31.951697 38.551993 47.085538 59.337450
2025-01-26 17.870100 22.354807 28.406021 37.553292 51.824071 74.919521 119.793416
2025-02-02 15.988189 20.922196 28.092405 40.031149 61.313298 102.922647 212.587026
2025-02-09 13.681840 18.344104 25.402024 37.827378 61.865280 115.230362 294.099503
2025-02-16 12.677248 17.462418 25.049076 39.307265 69.825296 150.206027 547.145678
2025-02-23 11.595462 16.277252 23.948094 39.074493 74.087302 180.680068 976.996708
2025-03-02 10.707528 15.272008 22.963072 38.780890 78.107326 216.318796 1986.307182
2025-03-09 10.083290 14.613978 22.468909 39.349036 84.715924 273.906671 6715.174790
2025-03-16 9.274193 13.556746 21.096321 37.694282 84.322946 300.365944 21247.523098
2025-03-23 8.758648 12.949289 20.480047 37.611323 88.820432 367.002839 NaN
2025-03-30 8.083603 12.006097 19.113923 35.502635 85.791405 379.274003 NaN
2025-04-06 7.447606 11.087646 17.712119 33.093931 80.947913 371.311047 NaN
2025-04-13 6.881256 10.281291 16.509668 31.127841 77.584540 377.472681 NaN
2025-04-20 7.077789 10.850471 18.097986 36.523954 105.741018 904.994810 NaN
2025-04-27 6.960632 10.831569 18.479510 38.900269 124.616556 1804.202863 NaN
2025-05-04 6.509531 10.150405 17.371751 36.786641 119.609086 1898.804635 NaN
2025-05-11 6.356469 10.023355 17.452733 38.206262 135.341489 4102.494473 NaN
2025-05-18 6.102780 9.683309 17.024519 37.983040 141.625306 7289.842134 NaN
2025-05-25 5.866472 9.360982 16.603930 37.701446 147.637251 15194.035518 NaN
2025-06-01 5.699099 9.162402 16.445572 38.246317 160.524353 96782.002554 NaN
2025-06-08 5.419522 8.724761 15.693858 36.658913 155.887279 173994.169431 NaN
2025-06-15 5.245626 8.488692 15.396017 36.579295 163.782284 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 4.975166 8.045553 14.576432 34.554371 153.649506 NaN NaN